Cheap Oil, High Stakes: Can India Do Without Russia?
New Delhi, October 17, 2025 — As Western nations tighten sanctions on Moscow, India finds itself at a crossroads. The world’s third-largest oil importer has benefited enormously from discounted Russian crude since the start of the Ukraine war — but can it afford to stop now?
India’s Reliance on Russian Oil
Since 2022, Russia has emerged as India’s biggest supplier of crude oil, surpassing Iraq and Saudi Arabia. With global prices soaring, Russian oil offered New Delhi an economic lifeline — up to 30% cheaper than market rates. The discounted crude helped India manage inflation, support its refining sector, and maintain steady fuel prices for millions.
Geopolitical Pressure Mounts
However, India’s energy strategy now faces international scrutiny. The United States and European Union have repeatedly urged New Delhi to align with Western sanctions and reduce its dependence on Moscow. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has “agreed to stop buying Russian oil” has sparked debate about the future of India’s energy ties.
Energy Security vs. Diplomacy
Experts say that completely cutting off Russian oil could be risky for India’s economy. Replacing it with Middle Eastern or American crude would likely increase import costs and push up domestic fuel prices. At the same time, staying too close to Moscow may strain India’s growing strategic relationship with the West.
Domestic Impact and Market Reality
Indian refiners have thrived on Russian oil discounts, re-exporting processed fuels to global markets. A sudden shift away from Russian supply could disrupt these operations, affecting profits and employment. The government, therefore, must strike a delicate balance between geopolitical alignment and economic pragmatism.
Looking Ahead
As the world moves toward cleaner energy, India is investing heavily in renewables and electric mobility. Yet, for now, oil remains its most crucial energy source. Whether India can truly “do without Russia” depends on how quickly it can diversify its energy imports and develop long-term self-sufficiency.
With energy prices rising and global politics in flux, India’s choices today will shape its economic stability for years to come.
