19/9/2025

What Will China’s Green-Tech Ambitions Cost the World? 🌍

China’s rapid rise as the global leader in green technology is a double-edged sword. While its massive investment and production have dramatically lowered the cost of clean energy worldwide, it also creates significant geopolitical and economic risks. The world benefits from cheaper solar panels, EVs, and batteries, but this dominance poses a strategic vulnerability.

The Unprecedented Rise of China’s Green-Tech Powerhouse

Over the last two decades, China has made a strategic push to dominate the clean energy sector. This isn’t just about environmentalism; it’s a “massive national security multiplier” that strengthens its energy, economic, and geopolitical security. By heavily investing in research, development, and manufacturing, China has achieved a near-monopoly in key areas.

• Dominance in Manufacturing: China accounts for over 80% of the world’s solar manufacturing capacity and has a controlling share of the global wind turbine and electric vehicle (EV) battery markets.
• Controlling the Supply Chain: China also dominates the entire supply chain, from the mining and processing of critical rare earth minerals to the production of finished goods.
• Driving Down Costs: The sheer scale of China’s production has made green technology more affordable globally. This has accelerated the energy transition in many countries, making clean energy accessible to billions of people.

The Costs and Risks: A Global Reckoning

While the benefits are clear, China’s green-tech dominance comes with a set of significant costs and risks for the rest of the world.

Geopolitical and Economic Vulnerabilities

Reliance on a single country for essential clean energy components creates major supply chain risks. If geopolitical tensions escalate, China could use its control over these supply chains as a form of economic leverage. This has already been seen with export restrictions on rare earths, which are vital for many advanced technologies. The concentration of manufacturing in China also threatens the viability of emerging domestic industries in other countries, particularly in Europe and the United States, raising concerns about job security and long-term economic growth.

Environmental and Social Concerns

While the overall goal is “green,” the rapid expansion of these industries isn’t without its own environmental and social impacts. The mining and processing of rare earth minerals can be environmentally destructive. Furthermore, there have been concerns about labor practices in some of these supply chains.

The Path Forward: De-Risking and Diversifying

To mitigate these risks, other nations are now focusing on a strategy of “de-risking” from over-reliance on China. This involves several key steps:

• Diversifying Supply Chains: Countries are seeking to build alternative supply chains by investing in domestic production and fostering partnerships with other nations.
• Strategic Investments: Governments are providing subsidies and incentives to encourage the development of their own clean technology industries.
• Fostering Innovation: There is a renewed focus on innovation to reduce reliance on specific critical minerals and to develop new, more resilient technologies.